Wages growth vital to retail growth
I agree wholeheartedly with this report by Greg Jericho in The Guardian. Below is a selection or pars from the report.
Tax cuts won’t pry open household wallets.
Last week the latest retail trades figures revealed that in the past 12 months the volume of retail spending, in seasonally adjusted terms, grew by less than at any time since the 1990 recession. The trend measure was less terrible – it suggested that the level of growth was only the worst it has been since the depths of the GFC.
In the past nine months the volume of retail trade has not grown at all. That’s recession-level spending.
That we are spending that weekly when the unemployment rate is 5.2% tells you a lot about how poor that measure has become for explaining the state of our economy.
And it is not the case that the bad news for households is contained to only some parts of the country. All states except Queensland have seen the volume of retail spending growth fall.
At this point the government is betting on the tax cuts fuelling an increase in spending. It should in the short-term, but without wages growth no household is going to think about increasing their spending long-term.
And the most troubling thing is the drop in inflation expectations and those for the cash rate have occurred not just since the government was re-elected but since the tax cuts have passed into law.
Few seem to think they will do enough, and instead we continue to look to the Reserve Bank to come to the rescue.
In my opinion, only wages growth can increase spending. People on a minimum wage, Newstart and other social programs, young families living pay to pay … these are the core fuel for retail, these are the people who will spend every extra cent they receive.