Newspaper publisher Fairfax announced major changes to its operations today under the heading of FAIRFAX OF THE FUTURE.
The changes prepare the company for a digital only model. Indeed, on page 17 of the investor briefing document, Fairfax acknowledges that the move to digital only is inevitable, tying remaining in print to revenue. With print revenues in steady decline for years, there can only be one end point, an exit from print.
Click on the image to see the point made on page 16 of the investor briefing. See the pie chart – 34% of the company’s cost base goes to production and distribution. The document notes these as: costs not required in a digital only model.
Every part of the announcement from Fairfax today prepares the company for a reduction and, possibly, ultimate complete retreat from print. The move of The Age and SMH to compact formats (great move and long overdue by the way), the introduction of digital subscriptions (somewhat overdue for their quality journalism offer), the closure of the Chullora and Tullamarine print sites and their digital-first editorial model make the end game clear for Fairfax … and for newsagents.
Fairfax has intensified its focus on cost cutting, targeting annualised savings of $235 million by 2015. It’s in a race again market forces as evidenced in the chart on page 12 of the investor briefing showing the Fairfax audience by media type … chilling stuff.
I suspect that market forces will impact this plan and see the company act on at least one or more of its daily mastheads either shedding some days from the print roster or move to a digital only platform before 2015. Circulation continues to decline for all but a couple of daily newspapers in Australia and this is putting pressure on advertising revenue. Page 17 of the investor briefing makes it clear Fairfax will move to a digital only model if print advertising and circulation revenue declines materially. I think this is happening.
A day by day analysis of the return achieved for The Age newspaper, for example, would, I suspect, reveal at least three days of the week to be loss making: Monday, Tuesday and Friday. I’d expect Wednesday to be doing okay because of classifieds (but only just as advertising is falling away rapidly), Thursday to be strong due to the Green Guide, Saturday to be strong due to advertising and Sunday to be strong due to a good weekend read.
If my assumptions (above) are right, we could (should) see The Age cut days. A number of seven day newspapers in the US have done this. Equally, Fairfax could switch from seven days to digital only of the cost savings of eliminating all production and distribution costs justified the move. I think we are more likely to see days cut in advance of a complete move – but a switch to digital only is inevitable.
I’d note that the news itself will most likely result in fewer people reading the print products as it puts migration to digital more top of mind.
The Fairfax moves are focused solely on their share price. They should not come as a surprise to anyone, especially not to newsagents. However, I think there will be newsagents who are shocked by the Fairfax moves.
Some state based newsagent associations have spent and continue to spend more time and effort on print distribution issues and plans than on retail yet the future of our channel depends more on retail. I wonder when they will realise their mistake.
While there is value in distribution newsagents consolidating in pursuit of efficiencies, there is even greater value in developing a newsagency model in a world where most newspapers in Australia are replaced by digital only platforms. We know from Fairfax and News that distribution costs are a key focus. There is no up side for newsagents from this focus. What little control newsagents had to drive their distribution businesses is fading. But this is not news. If only channel leaders realised this and engaged with their constituency more proactively. They should have been spending more time representing the whole channel and not just distribution.
Fairfax is doing what it needs to do for its survival. Its needs do not match the needs of newsagents. Newsagents need to act on what is right for them. In my case, the decision to get out of distribution years ago feels more right every day.
Are newsagents focused on their future? Some are but not enough of them. Hopefully, today’s announcement from Fairfax will be a wake-up call for those with their heads in the sand.
While I feel for the 1,900 jobs Fairfax will shed, many more will be shed in newsagencies as digital replaces print for new consumption. This is a moment of fundamental restructuring which cannot be blamed on anyone. We have seen it coming for a while. Maybe some of those losing their jobs will not engage with more flexible and content driven online platforms.
News Limited is next up to the microphone with their announcement.