Talking to retailers from several different channels, there is no doubt that COVID-19 is impacting retail shopper traffic and revenue. Traffic is down. Revenue is down.
None of the retailers I have spoken with are from channels with sought after food and household goods lines. They are all from businesses serving discretionary needs.
I think the significant decline in retail traffic and revenue is due to two main causes: anxiety in the community about future income and spending of available funds stocking up on essentials.
Looking at the forecast trajectory of COVID-19 and regardless of what governments decide about retail being open, this is the new normal for the next six months at least.
Several newsagents I spoke with said revenue was down 30% Thursday – Saturday last week compared to what is usual for this time of the year. Retailers outside our channel share similar numbers. Yes, 30%. Plot that out in your cashflow projection for six months.
While the possibility for forced closure is most likely in the near future, there is a more present challenge today, the challenge of sales revenue taking a serious and sustained dive.
The sales decline is so great that the affected businesses have to respond, unless they have spare capital to fund being open usual hours with usual overheads.
Walmart in the US overnight announced a significant scale back to their hours. plenty 24 hour stores will close overnight. They say to re-stock. I this it is to also contain costs.
If your revenue has significantly dropped in recent days and if you don’t have a deep well of capital from which to draw to tide you through, consider:
- Reducing opening hours and / or cutting labour cost (rostered hours).
- Reviewing all inventory forward orders.
- Being transparent with local shoppers about the challenge.
- Pitching bringing forward purchases for Easter and Mother’s Day.
- Encouraging forward purchases of birthday cards and gifts.
- Stocking up on crossword titles.
There is no shame in the sales decline.
In my own case, we will decide today our own next steps. The first move is likely to be a reduction in hours. Nothing major, but a move nevertheless. Our forward orders are prudent. And, we have been actively promoting bringing forward purchases for several weeks.
We have sought information from Westfield on their plan but have heard nothing.
What is impacting the whole community and retail is unprecedented. No one knows for sure what retailers should do. However, we do know that doing something is critical.
UPDATE: 1pm four newsagents have contacted me reporting between 30% and 40% reduction in revenue for the week to Sunday March 15, 2020 compared to the same week a year earlier.