Author: Mark Fletcher

So many Aussie media outlets trade off speculation, especially speculation about economy-related numbers, like interest rates.

For several weeks now it’s a lead story for many news outlets, speculation about an interest rate rise, with many expecting the Reserve bank board to make a decision at their monthly meeting tomorrow.

The volume of the speculation makes the possibility off interest rate rises a topic of discussion in retail. The speculation worries people, it negatively impacts consumer confidence.

I wish news outlets would stick to reporting news, and stop covering speculation as if it is news.

Here in our local small business newsagencies, we can’t control interest rate movements, but we can buttress our own businesses to enable them to be less impacted by interest rate increases. There are plenty of moves we can make so our businesses rely less one month that has an interest cost. We can also not engage with the speculation in-store or on socials.

Consumer confidence is vital to local retail, especially in these mid-year wasteland months.

I have been thinking about how small business retailers can deal with interest rate rises when preparing advice for my POS software company customers recently. Freeing up dead cash remains the most vital, and immediate, move any local retailer cam make:

We help retailers free up cash in their businesses. And, this can help reduce their reliance on loan funds, which means a lower impact of rising interest rates. now, how do we help retailers free up cash. We do this in a range of ways, through smart tools in our POS software. We helped one business release more than $20,000 of hitherto dead money. The released funds helped them reduce their overdraft and that reduced the amount of interest the business was paying. It all comes back to using business data.

If you are concerns about the speculation, it’s better to act rather than amplify what might be.

I know plenty of newsagents are keen for more of the AFL team Coach product following sell-out sales. I reached out to a members of the leadership team at Are Direct yesterday and can share this update from them with you.

I have spoken to the Account Manager for the Team Zone AFL cards. I can confirm no state is being given priority on stock and the % of stock distributed to date is equal. The publisher prints the cards locally here, waits until the final team photos in mid-March then commences production.

There has been a delay in the production and the amount of stock we would normally have by the end of April but more stock is going out tomorrow and also next week. We understand the frustration but we allocate stock as evenly as possible and as quick as it is coming in the door. We do have more overall stock this year than last year so when initial allocations are completed by mid-May there will be larger amounts of stock available for stores that are selling well / sold out.

This is good news. It gives us specific information to share with customers.

The latest sales data from across a diverse range of toy retailers indicate plush as a super category. To be clear, this is across different types of shops, different banners, using different POS software. This broad cross section makes it reliable and useful. The performance of plush is a stand out.

I am happy about this news as there are still some in the newsagency channel who mock plush, say it doesn’t make money, say it’s had its day. This evidence indicates otherwise. It indicates that those talking down plush have not looked at the evidence, for the evidence shows success.

Now, of course, plush can mean a range of different things, from sub $10.00 items through to $200.00 items, and more.

I have a good range of plush in each of my shops, from a range of different suppliers. It is performing well, delivering growth, driving net new traffic.

I introduced it to the newsagency I bought in malvern just before Christmas. They had not stocked it before. It’s now at $3,000 a month in revenue, and bringing in new shoppers. It’s a good news story from my personal experience – just as I expected it.

What is especially interesting about plush in newsagencies is what is bought with it. That mix is diverse. rarely do you have a single plush item in the purchase. Usually it is 2 or more, and 1 or 2 other items. Plush is a basket means it is a deeper than is often the case basket.

The bonus with plush is the margin. 55% and more GP% is a good number. Plus, the plush shopper is more likely to be back as plush purchases tend to be habit based purchases, making the ‘lifetime’ value of the shopper something to crave and appreciate.

In my experience, the keys to success with plush are having an evolving range, front of store placement, constant change to displays, full displays and the right touch to shopper engagement. Those buying for themselves are collectors and they appreciate being treated as such. Plush is not a toy, buying plush can be like buying a pet.

I am yet to see a newsagency business properly introduce plush and fail.

Yes, I own Tower Systems, the company that serves more newsagents with newsagency software than any other and, yes, this is a video I made to promote Tower Systems. It is also a video that shines a light on sky information that is too often ignores by retailers and POS software companies:

Buy Now Pay Later became a thing for retailers, online and in-store. It wads a way to reach shoppers who otherwise may not shop. We all raced to offer it, and promote it.

Humm, Afterpay, Zip and others made it easy, even though the cost to sales was significant, often as high as 6%.

We chased the cult-like BNPL shoppers without a care about what happened down the road.

The trailblazing BNPL companies have plenty of competitors now with PayPal, credit card companies and banks out with competitive offerings. The BNPL road is becoming rocky with consumer organisations and regulators in several countries calling for regulation of the fintech BNPL operators.

With BNPL maturing, there is data as to consumer behaviour, a better understanding as to how the BNPL businesses make money and the role fees, such as late fees, play for consumers who use BNPL.

These and related factors are likely to be behind share price falls for Afterpay:

And ZIP:

These charts are from www.fool.com.

Does any of this impact retailers offering BNPL? The increased competition does in that if you want to serve that shopper who relies on these delayed payment terms you are likely to need to expand your offering.

There is commentary that some BNPL businesses are looking at retailers playing a role in responsibility for payment. I am not sure how that could work.

That said, I can understand that their model needs to change, because the current share price trajectory is problematic for them.

Retailers liked BNPL because it did (does?) attract new shoppers and it offered a replacement to LayBy. But the explosion of BNPL is driving issues for the model.

My local coffee shop offers BNPL payment through Payo for a coffee and food. Petrol stations have partnered to offer BNPL for petrol and everyday necessities.

In my own shops I am not a fan of the more extensible BNPL offerings,l like Afterpay. Losing ten percent of margin dollars in a purchase make that purchase less valuable. It’s been a topic at a couple of retailer conferences this year.

While I am no expert, to me it looks like a dramatic increase in BNPL competition, the prospect of regulation and pushback from retailers as to the cost of a BNPL transaction are all impacting the share price, and tarnishing the gloss of the BNPL temple.

I expect there to be a shake out, which is likely to be disruptive for retailers. Eventually, I expect the larger and more traditional financial players to stabilise the BNPL model.

Our job as retailers is to offer what shoppers want, when they want it … and to take payment through any form that works for them and us. So, yeah, just as change is an everyday opportunity in retail, it is thus in terms of how we are paid.

I guess the key point I’d make to retailers about BNPL is be aware of the disruption and be curious and cautious about pitches to take on new payment methods.