5 reasons why Christmas 2022 may not be the same as Christmas 2021, and why that’s okay

Some media outlets are running stories about a downturn in shopper confidence and predictions from some questionable retail ‘experts’ saying Christmas 2022 will be down on 2021.

I think it would be unhelpful to get drawn into what might be.

We can’t change customer sentiment ourselves, just as in our small businesses we cannot change statewide or national retail performance.

We can only focus on that over which we have control. If we put out the best Christmas offer we can and market it in the best way we are able, that’s all we can ask of ourselves.

Christmas 2022 may not be as good as Christmas 2021 for newsagents and here’s why:

• For chunks of 2021, borders were closed and many were in lockdown. That meant people planning on sending gifts rather than being with people in person.
• There was more handout money in the economy in 2021, mainly from Covid support programs.
• Interest rates were stable in 2021. They are not as bad in 2022 as some media outlets shout about, but they are on the rise and some people have taken on debt without considering that the cost of the debt may rise.
• Plenty of our competitor retailers had been closed through lockdowns, some did not reopen. New businesses have opened since.
• Even though 2021 was Covid impacted, we all knew were we stood, there was more certainty in restrictions. Plenty are still getting used to less regulation / control.

Odd as it may be, I think 2022 feels more disrupted than 2021 because we are on the other side of Covid restrictions, but Covid is very much still here. Business rosters are still being impacted by Covid. Working from home continues to be a thing for many. The supply chain continues to be a mess. Product quality out of some countries is worse.

Another factor I could have added to the above list is that some people are staying away from shops because of the lack of Covid restrictions. People who are immunocompromised, for example, may choose to not venture into Christmas retail.

We don’t know what’s ahead. I suspect this unknown has enough people being cautious that it impacts shopper behaviour. For what it’s worth, I think a good value proposition this Christmas will do well.

Now, all of this relates to in-store. What about online? Well, since you asked … I suspect online will have a good Christmas in part because the pool from which online draws knows no borders and in that is opportunity for smart and engaged retailers. The other benefit of online is that we have data, excellent data, about what the shopper is looking for, where they are, whether they are a first time visitor or a returning shopper, and more. Plus, with online, it’s easy to tap them on their shoulder as they leave and pitch an opportunity – these exit pitches tend to work at least 10% of the time.

So, yeah, Christmas 2022 may not be as good as Christmas 2021 … but I bet it will be better than Christmas 2019 and that is the comparison that I will look at, that is the comparison that matters.

For now, though, we need to focus on all over which we have control: what we stock, how we display it, in-store customer service and our own personal touches that make shopping in our shops different, more enjoyable, more memorable. That’s all we can do … focus on that over which we have control.

I wish our news outlets were more thoughtful in their coverage of what might be. What I have seen recently is likely to have a negative impact, even though the ‘reporting’ has not been based on evidence. Anyone can write a story based on a survey of what people may do. It’s speculation, unhelpful.