Folio is reporting the results of a survey predicting that one in five Americans will own a tablet computer by 2014. I expect this penetration to be reached before 2014. Sales of the devices have been extraordinary and they will grow as a flood of tablets reach the market this year. In a few days, the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas will a bunch of new devices which will take the tablet hype to new heights.
Those in doubt need to do some research into what happened following the release of the first iPod.
my soon to be 1 year old son will get an ipad from me.
1 year old with an expensive electronic device is generally not a good mix. I remember selling an rc helicopter for Christmas and the customer said he’ll probably use if more than his son. So wait, Eric, is your statement a code word for getting something nice for yourself but saying it’s for the son so the Mrs. doesn’t get angry? If so, then sorry for ruining your secret.
But being on topic, nothing really to worry about. Most people buy a tablet for other tasks ( games) rather than reading. I have an iPod touch that gets used more for surfing the interwebs than listening to music. E-mailing hasn’t killed our greeting card sales nor will electric cars be the end for petrol. Ofcourse there will be a decline in sales.
Mal,
Email may not have killed greeting cards, but for under 25/30s the greeting card market is almost non existent. Facebook and SMS are the ones killing the category to a certain extent. I think the only people I received a birthday card from last year were over 40.
A look at the top iPad apps will of course show a range of games, but you’ll also notice a lot of productivity, news and entertainment apps.
Mal, music retailers and music publishers said the same thing about the iPod when it was released six years ago. This device and what it has started is game changing. I say that as a user.
You don’t have to be Einstein to work out what’s happening.Auto Supermarket disappeared followed by the Melbourne Trading Post and the remaining Trader mags are getting thinner. TV guides are under pressure due to digital TV and internet, this will only get more so. Kids and Teenage mags are dead.Next will be racing papers and possibly a big fish like the financial review or australian. Honestly, newspapers have never been more “yesterdays news” than they are today.I am genuinely sad at what is happening, I love newsagencies, the industry in general, but it’s simply horse and cart versus the motor car stuff.
I can appreciate your notion. Though, to a great extent the new devices are engaging a market that would not have existed otherwise. I see the the shift in market; from distribution of information in a traditional form to distributing in a digital form as being minor. For example, right now we’re not using letters as we discuss in this blog. Technically the post office could complain about lost business but this situation could no thave existed with letters, in this blog we are currently trading in a different market but we’ll still use mail to send invoices. Business isn’t being lost nor has it been created in the traditional channel. That’s why currently there is steady growth in newsagencies ( generally in par with inflation).
Right now we are in a transition of a cultural meme (distribution of information from using paper to using digital media.) We will be weaned out as the newer generations are brought up in a digital age just like how horses began being weaned out as we began growing up in the age of cars. But this takes time, maybe still two to three generations to come until we feel a great impact. I think my earlier post was too far fetched, I was thinking in the short term of 20-30 years ( hey, I can’t help it, I’m only 17) but in the long term, yes there is trouble for more utilitarian information we are distributing (news, kids activities e.t.c) but things that are given as tangible gifts are still expected to thrive (it’s tough to get your head around giving a digital file to someone important). At the end of the day this is my critical opinion to our stance. I would love to hear further dicussion on this, especially by mark and jarryd. There maybe mistakes in the above message it took me 20 min to write this using 1 thumb on an iPhone.
The post office is seeing serious year on year reduction in the use postal services. Theyre currently in the process of closing 27 of their outlets. The vast majority of our business communication is via email, and id hazard a guess that over half of our suppliers currently use this for invoices/statements.
Print based media in newsagencies is currently in decline. Mark has the benchmark figures that show this (although i would speculate Marks figures are marginally more optimistic than the industry overall due to the kind of newsagents more likely to submit their figures) and circulation audits also confirm the decline. Generally newsagencies with growth are seeing it in non-traditional categories such as ink, gifts, books, toys, etc.
I very much agree that new devices are creating new markets more than they are leeching from existing ones. This is expected in their initial stages as early adopters are less likely to have been users of print. But the early adoption period for these new devices is incredibly small – only a few years or less. If one in 5 people own a tablet computer by 2014 that rate of adoption is so steep it overtakes almost every other technology ever invented. And the adoption rate will only continue to increase as the old products they replace, namely print, push people toward them. There is a point at which a publication can no longer make a profit through their printed product. So while there may still be some significant demand for print in 10 years time many publication simply wont be able to facilitate this with supply because they cant make it profitable. As circulation numbers decline and print advertising starts to dry up (spurred on by the decline in circulation) many publications will force their customers toward these devices. Not all will go of course, but as the same thing happens to more publications consumers will have little choice.
There are also a lot of unknown variables. For instance we might see traditional print media try to convert their customers over to digital media by offering devices at a reduced cost. Or we might see telco providers bundling subscription apps or content credit with dats plans. Or we might see manufacturers doing the same thing, integrating digital content providers into their platform. Who knows? At the moment not even the manufacturers, developers, content providers or data providers know. They’re all experimenting as quickly and as aggressively as possible during this inevitably short lived early adopter phase.
BTW every newsagent should be watching the tech sites to see what is happening in the tablet space at CES. Cnet, Techcrunch and Engadget are all good sites to watch. The event is huge and there’s a lot of stuff happening so just filter through all the non-relevant content … unless your a tech-head in which case you’ll possibly lock yourself away, alone with only an internet connection as sustenance, for your favorite 4 days of the year.
We all seem to accept that print media is in trouble. The steady decline is killing some publications now and I suggest the next to go will probably be the lesser quality gossip magazines and like.
Just as digital photo’s can’t totally replace printed photos I would expect there to be a long term future for quality glossy magazines where presentation is important, Magazines will however become a minor department in our stores. Look at the limited range in supermarkets etc; this may be a rough guide to the future size of our magazine departments.
What all this highlights is the immediate need to focus on core ranges that can be grown. Stationery, ink and tech products, art products and other traditional newsagency lines can thrive if given attention. Gifts and toys go hand in hand with the card department and we need to jump at opportunities to embrace these lines while being alert for new opportunities.
Negative attitudes will only give negative outcomes so as an industry we need to identify the positive lines currently showing growth or the potential for growth and make them work even better for us along with ant new opportunities to keep our industry fresh and relevent . Those who do this well will convince the public that we deserve to be a destination for shopping, not a last option.