The Wall Street Journal reports on circulation numbers to for released this week. The numbers continue bad news for US newspaper publishers and therefore the supply chain.
While the fall is concerning it is not unexpected. One only has to look at clean circulation and readership data from the last 10 years. (I say clean because clean data from US publishers is challenging to find.)
I reckon that here in Australia we’re between two and four years behind the US in terms of the impact of online, wireless and the collapse of the 18 – 34 newspaper market. Some of our major newspapers are reporting what is (relatively) considerable growth in a tough marketplace. Consumer patterns are different here as is the newspaper supply chain. Another reason for slower impact here is the newsagent retail network. The US and Europe have nothing like it.
So, we’re behind in the in the fall in newspaper circulation. That will change. If we are smart we will use being behind to our advantage. We, publishers and newsagents, will work out nuts off co-operatively to win every customer we can – based on the product and not these crazy competitions and giveaways – publishers will resist putting their product everywhere and therefore encourage greater support from newsagents.
We have a window of opportunity – ever the optimist – and we should seize that every day. What we do over the next six months will be crucial.
The falling circulation numbers in the US will divert more advertising away and bring publishers and their distribution network closer to the tipping point at which they will quickly contract/retreat. We should learn from their experiences and see the danger before it is too late.